After consumer price index jumped the 6.3-per cent mark in May and wholesale inflation set a record of 12.94 per cent, house economists at Swiss brokerage UBS Securities have warned that the country is facing more upside risks on the inflation front that is set to averaging at 5 per cent for the year. Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 per cent in May, breaching the comfort level of the Reserve Bank and thus rendering reduction in interest rates a difficult proposition in the near term. Led by petrol price, that has crossed the Rs 100-mark in many states, wholesale inflation too accelerated to a record 12.94 per cent in May. While crude oil has crossed $70 a barrel on account of rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods due to spike in commodities, and the low base of last year due to the lockdown.
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'The term 'pro-growth' must be qualified somewhat because, while a rising tide will lift all boats, it will not necessarily do so equally.'
'From our perspective, it will bring additional customers and from their perspective, it will get them younger customers.'
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is now projected to be at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22 with risks evenly balanced. In its August policy, the central bank had estimated inflation to be at 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost.
Liquidity has improved, but 20 out of 24 NBFC stocks are staring at an over 5% reduction in 12-month target prices.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on benchmark rate mainly on account of uncertainty over the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the fears of firming inflation may also refrain the MPC from tinkering with the interest rate in its bi-monthly monetary policy outcome to be announced on Friday. The RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged at the last MPC meeting held in April.
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Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 per cent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised inflation target is more likely. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy panel is scheduled to announce the third monetary policy review on August 6, amidst the continuing spike in retail inflation that has breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for the past two consecutive months.
Nine members of a family were among the deceased in the first incident which took place around 11.15 pm on Wednesday, when Mumbai experienced heavy rains throughout the day, at the New Collector Compound on Abdul Hamid Road in the Malwani area of suburban Malad, the officials said.
Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs has flagged a slew of concerns on the surging COVID-19 caseload that has been hitting new records everyday, coupled with the rising lockdowns, forcing it to downgrade India's GDP growth forecast for the full year to 10.5 per cent from 10.9 per cent, apart from pegging down stock indices valuation and earnings. In a detailed note on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs' house economists led by Sunil Koul said these record number of pandemic cases and a host of key states announcing stricter lockdowns of late have fuelled serious growth concerns, leaving investors worried about the risks to macro and earnings recovery.
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Over the next three - six months, UBS believes earnings will be the main driver for EM equities outperformance.
The liquidity-fuelled rally will continue for some time, however, fundamentals are getting stretched.
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In April, RBI had projected retail inflation to be around 5 per cent.
After monetising Jio Platforms -- which houses the firm's telecom arm and digital ventures, richest Indian Mukesh Ambani is looking to rope in investors in the retail business.
'Government shouldn't be in the business of running airlines, instead it should develop the ecosystem of civil aviation.'
The government has used four methods to value the assets that it is looking to monetise under its Rs 6-trillion National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP). The value of the assets on the block is indicative that the government is expected to realise either in the form of upfront accruals or by the way of private sector investment, NITI Aayog said in its report. Valuations are essentially estimates, so multiple methodologies are useful to get a range, said Manish Agarwal, infrastructure expert and co-founder of AskHowIndia.org. Different valuation methodologies depend on the different assumptions that are being considered for valuing a business, he said.
The monetary authority said it was worried on three fronts with regard to inflation as well as the economy.
'Kindly advise about the following stocks. Can I hold or exit?'
The repo rate has been left unchanged at 4 per cent, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the decisions taken by the central bank's MPC.
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'Rising Covid cases and localised lockdowns are being closely monitored.'
'When they were looking for an action girl, I wanted my name to be right on top.'
While analysts remains overweight on financials, property, discretionary, industrials and materials, they maintain a neutral stance on pharma, telecom and energy; and underweight on staples, utilities, and IT services.
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"The main risk stems from the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the south west monsoon in view of the rising probability of an El Nio event around July-August, and its implications for food inflation," RBI said, as it kept the status quo on key interest rate for the third time in a row.
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Stretched valuations and slowdown in DII flows are some of the reasons why Goldman Sachs cut its India rating to 'market-weight'
'I realised that if we don't get relief from the government, I'll be faced with the prospect of either starving in Delhi, or starving in my village.'
'Political parties bring out money they have stashed away and start spending it. How large that spending will be depends on how much money has been stashed. So, you are going to have a strong upside coming from the election effect,' says Pronab Sen.
A video clip on Saturday surfaced on TV channels and social media purportedly showing a man hung upside down and being gruesomely beaten to death by three men.
Staggered pull-out will help investors if the market continues to rise.
Reports suggest state-owned banks have lapped up Rs 40,000 crore, so far, using both bonds and equity instruments. The question, though, is whether there will be a perceptional change for PSB stocks.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries
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